The OKBET Betting experts have you covered as the 2022-23 season approaches. Over the following two weeks, we’ll be looking at how to approach some of the league’s top teams and offering some futures best bets before the season begins.
Doug Kezirian of Sports Betting Insider provides his picks for this season’s MVP favorites and longshots.
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Thursday: The Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors’ cases
Friday: The Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks’ cases
Monday: The Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers’ cases
Who should you bet on for MVP on Tuesday?
Wednesday’s wagering totals and awards
17th of October: Social media and gambling
NBA title odds and favorites for October 18
Is this the year Joel Embiid finally breaks through and wins the NBA MVP award?
Because team success is so critical to voters, I usually wait until the season starts before becoming too involved in the MVP battle. I frequently construct a portfolio of a few guys in order to secure a steady payout. Of course, this includes keeping track of injuries and reading the tea leaves, especially after the All-Star break.
However, I have placed one wager on Embiid, who is now +700 at Caesars Sportsbook. Narratives are important, and the Sixers big man has finished second in back-to-back seasons. While James Harden is excellent and can put up big numbers, Embiid will be credited with the team’s success. This year, the Sixers are anticipated to compete for the top seed once more.
Favorites
While Luka Doncic is the betting favorite (+390), history suggests that he will not win the honor.
The MVP has guided a club to a one- or two-seed in its conference in 23 of the last 25 seasons. Last year’s outliers were Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook, who both played for teams that finished with a Western Conference six-seed.
Both situations were unusual. Westbrook averaged a triple-double and beat Oscar Robertson’s single-season record for triple-doubles. Last year, Jokic put up fantastic numbers, but he was a bit of a longshot until injuries to other contenders opened the door.
This season, the Mavericks are the Western Conference’s fifth favorite. However, there isn’t a lot of disparity in terms of regular season win totals. Dallas has 48.5 wins, while the Boston Celtics have the most in the league with 53.5.
The major reason I prefer to wait before betting on the MVP race is to study the league’s dynamics. Some players appear to be in better shape than others, and certain teams appear to take the regular season more seriously.
Having stated that, I’m grabbing Embiid. I don’t believe his chances will improve, and I expect Philadelphia to have a solid season from the outset. Embiid beats out Giannis Antetokounmpo (+550), Jayson Tatum (10-1), Kevin Durant (10-1), Nikola Jokic (12-1) and Ja Morant (14-1).
Longshots
The other viewpoint I usually take before to the season is longshots. Any person who has a lot of early momentum will see his odds drop dramatically, and a few names spring to mind. Nobody could blame someone for rooting for Devin Booker (55-1) or Anthony Edwards (60-1) or Rudy Gobert (100-1). I understand they are longshots for a reason, but the pricing appears to be incorrect.
The case for Booker is self-evident. The Phoenix Suns are coming off a season in which they finished with the best record in the league, and while Chris Paul was significant, Booker is their best player. Being the best player on the top overall seed is a significant bonus for an MVP candidate’s campaign if he improves his game even more.
Edwards and Gobert are linked by the fact that they are now teammates in Minnesota. Their season victory total of 49.5 indicates that oddsmakers anticipate a significant improvement, and I agree.
Edwards seemed to be on the verge of a wild season. In last year’s playoffs, he averaged 25.5 points per game on 40% three-point shooting. Many future All-Stars make significant strides in their third season, and the former No. 1 choice may be no exception. The question is if Minnesota has what it takes to compete for a top seed and whether Edwards can develop into a legitimate MVP candidate. Normally, a candidate from nowhere is disregarded, as was DeMar DeRozan last year, but at 60-1, I could see the argument.
However, at 100-1, I’d rather get a chunk of Gobert. Of course, he’s unlikely to win, but if Minnesota does realize its potential, Gobert will get a lot of credit. That end of the court is dominated by the three-time defensive player of the year, and he has the potential to overhaul Minnesota’s entire team defense. Also, in Utah, he was largely recognized as a screener, but perhaps he flourishes in a different system where he can score enough points to be considered for MVP. He can finish near the rim, and a point guard like D’Angelo Russell could be just what he needs to put up great numbers.
